FUTURE OF EVERYTHING --- THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION by David Orrell.
Thunder's Mouth Press, 2007
    INTRODUCTION --- the science and sociology of forecasting (p1-16)

      [1] Anatomy of a storm (p1-5)

      [2] Mapping the future (p5-8)

      [3] Don't blame the butterfly (p9-12)

      [4] Where is this going? (12-16)

        (1) Mathematical models interpret the world in simple mechanical terms (p14)

        (2) Living things have properties that elude prediction (p14)

        (3) Forecasting has a large psychological component (p14-15)

        (4) Some predictions are still possible (p15)

        (5) We need to change our approach to prediction (p15)

      This book is divided into three main parts. The FIRST part is a brief history of the science of prediction, which argues that modern forecasters are drawing on a long tradition of modelling the physical universe that stretches back to the ancient Greeks and have helped shape our perception of the world;

      The SECOND part of the book examines forecasting practice in the specific areas of weather, health, and wealth, and describes in detail the techniques currently used by scientists who make prediction their living; and

      The THIRD part of the book combines ideas from the first two parts into a long-term forecast for the planet that culminates in a look at predictions for the year 2100.

      The ultimate purpose of the book is to make a "forecast about forecasting," and to try to answer the question, "Can scientists really look into the future?"

      To find the answer to that question, we must begin with the spiritual and intellectual forebears of modern numerical prediction, namely, a secretive cult in ancient Greece led by a man they claimed was the Son of Apollo. (p15-16)

    PART 1 --- PAST (p17-119)

      1) Slings and arrows --- the beginnings of prediction (p19-50)

      2) Let there be light --- Tycho Brahe and the model makers (p51-83)

      3) Divide and conquer --- the "gospel" of deterministic science (p84-119

    PART 2 --- PRESENT (p121-266)

      4) Red sky at night --- predicting the weather (p123-173)

      5) It's in the genes (p174-217)

      6) Bulls and bears (p218-266)

    PART 3 --- FUTURE (p267-349)

      7) The big picture --- how weather, health, and wealth are related (269-312)

      8) Back to the drawing board ---figuring out where we went wrong (p313-336)

      9) Consulting the crystal ball --- our world in 2100 (p337-349)

    APPENDICES (p351-361)

      [1] The shift map (p351-354)

      [2] The Lorenz System (p354-356)

      [3] Daisyworld (p356-361)

        Daisyworld is only a kind of thought experiment, but is shows how "self-regulation" can occur without any recourse to teleology. (p360)

        Moral: Self-regulating systems, which consist of a dynamical balance between opposing forces, are hard to model and predict. (p361)

    NOTES (p362-398)

    GLOSSARY (p399-409)

    BIBLIOGRAPHY (p410-432)

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (p433)

    INDEX (p435-449)
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